First of all, big thanks to everyone who poked fun at my ten entries two weeks ago. As you can see, I’ve again fallen off the earth for a while, thanks to Olin’s Candidates Weekends.
Now to get to the important: It’s Oscar (not Mur-Miranda) night. As I mentioned last year (sorry, no entry to post to, since site went crazy during June), the quest is a perfect 24-for-24 categories correct. Without guessing, this is somewhat tough to do. (Not surprisingly, the big categories: Picture, Director, Actress – all easy. It’s best Sound editing that makes me cry every year.)
So, without further ado: 24 picks for Oscar Night, less important categories first.
Art Direction: Memoirs of A Geisha
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Costume Design: Memoirs of A Geisha
Doc Short: The Mushroom Club
Film Editing: Crash
Foreign Language Film: Joyeux Noel (or Paradise Now. Dammit.)
Makeup: Chronicles of Narnia: Lion, Witch, Wardrobe
Original Score: Brokeback Mountain
Original Song: “Travelin’ Thru” – Transamerica
Short Film – Animated: One Man Band
Short Film – Live Action: Our Time Is Up
Sound Editing: King Kong
Sound Mixing: Walk the Line
Visual Effects: King Kong
And the Big Nine. Or ten, this year.
Doc Feature: This category makes the leap from the uncared about to big-time this year. Since Bowling for Columbine (sorry, conservative folk, it’s because of the buzz, not the content.) was released, more people are taking an interest in documentary features. With three popular films in this category (March of the Penguins, Murderball, Enron: Smartest Guys in the Room), it’s a particularly tough pick – on paper, at least. In reality, none did better than March of the Penguins. So I’m going with that.
Best Animated Feature: Another category to make the jump from the small-time to the big-leagues. This is the first time since the category was introduced that no purely computer generated film is on the nominee list. This could be the toughest category of the night. I’m psuedo-randomly selecting Wallace and Gromit. We’ll see how that turns out for me.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain‘s been picking up this award in every other show with ease. No reason to change here.
Best Original Screenplay: I can see Good Night and Good Luck or Syriana picking up this award as well. However, with George Clooney picking up the Supporting Actor award, this one goes to Crash.
Best Supporting Actor: Duh. George Clooney, for Syriana. Well-liked actor throwing around possibility of politics in a film that roasts corruption in the oil industry? Please. Jake, Paul, and Matt didn’t have a chance (and if you screw me over, William Hurt in A History of Violence, I will come find you.)
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, for The Constant Gardener. I don’t know why. Probably because that’s the only film on the nod sheet for this category I saw.
Best Leading Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, for Capote. It’s a tough category here as well, with four of the five in the running (sorry, Terrence Howard). Of the four, I’d love to see Joaquin Pheonix win for Walk the Line, but Jamie Foxx in Ray could hurt him (since both films have the same style of musical legend getting addicted to pills then to recover and find love at the end. It’s pretty popular, these sex and drug things mixed in with rock ‘n roll.) I’d like a David Strathairn pick as well, since both Strathairn and Phoenix did an excellent job with their source material (so did, of course, Hoffman and Capote). And while Heath Ledger is in the most talked about movie of the year, he probably only ranks third behind Hoffman and Phoenix, since Heath Ledger didn’t win a single big award for his role. Hoffman takes it, with Phoenix the potential spoiler.
Best Leading Actress – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Not as tough as Actor, but still a tough category. Judi Dench and Charlize Theron don’t have strong enough roles to overcome their previous winner status, so they’re out. That leaves Keira Knightley, Reese Witherspoon, and Felicity Huffman. Throw out Keira Knightley for now, since she would be the ultimate dark horse. That leaves you the two Golden Globe winners (since the GGs award seperate for Drama and Comedy/Musical). It’s a tough race, but I’ll take Reese Witherspoon, who I just plain like more.
Best Direction – Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Easiest pick of the night: Pick whatever the DGA (Directors Guild) picks. They’re usually right.
Best Picture – Tonight, at around 11:55, if everything’s on schedule, you could either witness history, or the collective chickening out of Hollywood. While movies with a gay and a cowboy motif are nothing new (see Midnight Cowboy) no film has dealt with homosexuality as frankly (and as some say, as intimately) as Brokeback Mountain. It’s a dicey pick at best though, since everyone laments already how “out-of-touch” Hollywood is with the rest of America, and a plethora of states banning gay marriage.
Hollywood’s backup safe choice? Crash, a film that didn’t win anything at the GGs, but has picked up a lot of steam (and ground) since then. The big win for Crash came at the SAG awards, where it picked up Best Ensemble Cast. To the frustration of everyone, last night at the Independent Spirit awards, both Crash and Brokeback Mountain were awarded for best film in seperate categories.
Still, when has Hollywood listened -or cared- about the rest of America? You’ll still go see Spider-Man 3 when it comes out, so who gives a crap if they pick a gay cowboy movie as their best film of the year. It’s not like Crash deals with a more accesible topic for litle old ladies in Peoria: race relations in a gritty Los Angeles aren’t on the minds of anoyone east of the Rockies. Or west, for that matter.
I think Hollywood will say Brokeback Mountain tonight. Gut feeling. I think tomorrow, the boys with the Christian cable shows will come out and lament the pick, maybe call for a boycott until Passion of the Christ gets released for its annual Easter cash grab, and I think by Tuesday, you’ll have forgotten everything but what Kiera Knightley is wearing.
When I said Hollywood would make history, I didn’t say it was the kind of history you’d really care about.
